Last 3 months our target was Mewtwo so for that reason most players were raiding crazy and I am one of them. The sad things are the results because every week the results are not fair. Even though we tried our best with to get the pass next week. Some of us got the pass but not all of us. I am one of the players who raided every day multiple of time just to get the pass and in the I didn’t get it. Every week I saw that the most people who got the passes are not raiding that much which I called them non-active players. Last week I got the idea to try my theory for the ex-pass and I got some good results.
Before telling what I did I write some points that happened in the last waves of the ex-pass that let me think about this theory
- One of the guys who just tried to raid using 6 accounts of his friends (who stopped playing the game) so they are not active and in the end all of these accounts got the passes.
-Someone was busy for 2 weeks then suddenly she raids one raid with her husband and her son and she got the passes for all 3 accounts even though she had 2 mewtwos before.
-My second account got the pass on 9th of Jan but the surprising thing that I stopped playing with this account 3-4 days for some reasons in that week.
-When I asked the players “Did you got the pass?” most of them will answer me yes but it is not for me it for my brother or my second account etc. (non-active account).
There are more points, but I don’t want to write all of them.
What I conclude is most of the players who got the pass are not active in that week. So my plan is to stop raiding for one week and just in one day. I started the plan on Sunday with my 3 accounts but Niantic surprise me with distributing the passes in that day and I didn’t receive it and I was angry in that time and I told 2 of my friends to join my plan and they accept so they stopped raiding from Monday. On Friday we just did 2 raids targeted 2 potential gyms for ex raid. And then stop raiding until they distribute the passes. Before telling the results I will give a background about our accounts
My main account and one of my friends account did more than 350 raids and we have mewtwo but it was from test field so in that time all raiders got the pass so until that time we are not selected for mewtwo.
My second account did less than 50 raids and it has mewtwo from 2 weeks.
My third account did less than 60 raids and no mewtwo.
My other friend’s account did almost 400 raids and no mewtwo.
What I want to say is we have different conditions of accounts I want to know what is the probability to get the ex pass.
I think it is almost 0% but the results were all accounts got the passes!!!
My theory is basically being non-active will increase your chance to get the pass.
Why I think it is like this?
Let’s imagine the distribution was fair and the hardcore players who raid everyday will get the passes. The thing that I can think about it is non-active players will not get the pass because they will have no chance which may lead them to leave the game. But if they gave the pass to non-active players this may lead to make them excited to play more. But for active they will still play crazily until they got the pass which is forever or until they bored. Now the trick point will come which is when they bored they will become non-active which lead them to get the pass and continue playing.
I know it looks like crazy theory but that what I believe on.
I am not 100% sure about this theory but what I observed and what I got proved my theory. What I want to add also is the method will not work 100% it is just increase your chance but it will increase it too much.
To conclude everything I can say that the criteria to be selected in the ex raid is not your level or your badges in the gyms or your medals with the raids. It is basically how many days you stopped raiding.
I hope Niantic will do something make the ex raid fair or canceling the ex system.