Maybe that actually is the answer? (like, maybe it’s not feasible to add a Raichu version of every single special-hat Pikachu?)
Of course we might not have to wonder so dang much if Niantic put out official documentation and FAQs for the game and new features. (And if they do, I wish I knew where to find it.)
Nothing Ultra about Ultra Balls this morning.
& day Reward comes up and it’s Latiass. 9 Curved Ultra Balls in a row with 8 being great and 1 nice and it its still not caught. Not wasting anymore on it so go to Great Ball and catch first time with Curved Great throw.
Get to work and there’s a Snorlax in my office. Ultra ball selected again and this time it 11 Curve throws on a row with 9 Excellent and 2 Great and still not caught. Change to Great ball again as too many Ultras wasted and first throw with an excellent curve and its caught.
Wtf, RNG yeah right pffft.
I probably had just as many flee then I caught before the sleepy event. I had lots of trouble catching Latias when it was new raid, but not so much on research.
It seems like the act of switching ball types can increase the chance of a successful catch. Sometimes even switching to a weaker type of ball. That could be totally incorrect, but I’ve seen enough instances to make me suspect that to be the case.
Also, there are some mons that will get caught the first time with a regular ball and no berries that will usually require 2 or 3 throws if I go straight to the great or ultra and / or berry it right away. Again, this is just a perception I’ve gotten after seeing it happen frequently, not a conclusion from systematic experiments.