My theory on how EX Raid invitation algorithm works

raidgroups
legendaries
speculation
raidboss

#1

Remember that successful EX Raid trigger? When i carefully thinked about it, i suddenly discovered possible way how invitation algorithm works. Day of when raids will be held are being chosen few weeks after last wave. But you’re here to check how (most likely) raiding changes chance of getting invited right? So, there, we GO!
When servers are preparing for next wave, they obviously have to chose which gyms will have EX Raid for which raid. (That sucks obviously right?) But let’s go deeper. When we raid, we’re adding some chances for this gym to be host of EX Raid. It depends on how much chance we’re adding to that gym by: frequency of raiding and quantity of players. If we combine those things, like in that EX Raid trigger story, we have more and more chances for getting invited. OK. It’s still possible to get invited by just raiding random raid, but it’s completely pointless and impossible very unlikely to get invited with that way. @apavlinovic, isn’t this theory possibly true? Let me know what do you think about my theory.


#2

For whatever reason, When Niantic’s algorithms are looking for the next EX raid location they take 3 main things into account: is it a park, is it sponsored, and how many people raid there. Obviously if you have a Sponsored gym in a park then that’s a prime EX location, but i’ve given up trying to understand how an algorithm thinks and processes information. It just seems so random, because there is a pattern to it but no-one knows it yet


#3

Maybe someone one day will hack into PoGo servers and datamine everything about it…


#4

I feel like if you do one raid per day at one select park then you have a good chance. The problem is that if only one or 2 people ever raid there then it won’t bring an EX raid.


#5

I disagree for one reason: there are many incredibly popular gyms in London in places like Leicester Square, Regents/Hyde Park, the Tower of London, etc. There are always constant raiders there, and in the case of the 2 parks mentioned, obviously they’re in a park. Yet, there’s only been 1 EX raid at any of the above locations, and it was at that one gym in Hyde Park with the least activity. My point is, more raiders doesn’t always equal more EX raids. Same can be said for other major cities.


#6

Yea. This algorithm i guess is just 99.9% Randomness


#7

yes I am a frequent raider who has yet to receive one raid pass.


#8

@Mapman42 It’s been confirmed that low level raids including level 1 & 2 (which normally have few raiders) can trigger an EX raid pass. But you’re right, if it’s a gym that has few trainers raiding at it then the algorithm probably won’t pick it up even if it is in a park.
We don’t have sponsored stops in the city I live in but we have seen multiple EX raids at the same gym(s) so far (*edit - the gym I got the pass is now on either it’s 4th or 5th EX raid).
@JoshHack - I knew it would happen at some point :metal::laughing::metal: I only hope I can catch it…!!!


#9

Congrats man! Hopefully everything goes well. It should go well because he’s quite easy to catch.


#10

Have the best of luck with the raid!


#11

Except if you’re that guy that live streamed the first Mew Two Raid… :flushed::crazy_face::sweat_smile::joy:


#12

Mew Two is cool. They should add Mew tho it would be kind of hard because it can transform like ditto.


#13

He just couldn’t throw the ball properly! My advice, practice throwing on Arcanine. I know he’s rare, but he’s the same distance away as MewTwo


#14

Also heard it’s loke Kangaskhan so hopefully (:crossed_fingers:t3:) I should be good!


#15

Which youtuber couldnt catch mewtwo


#16

Its funny that im the only person named Pokemon


#17

A Japanese YouTuber streamed the first Japanese MewTwo Raid and missed 3/4 Of the throws


#18

do you know who?:grin:
I’ll check.


#19

It was the first live stream of a Mew Two EX raid. Jump to 51mins & watch a couple of mins from there.


#20

so funny how did he make it to level 40. He cant throw a ball at a pidgey probably. Oh well I wish the best of luck to him.