Could it be possible that they made a mistake in the code how to give ex raid passes?
They said people with many raids + gold gym badge have a bigger change on getting an Ex Raid pass but could it be possible that it has become the opposite? my friend has done a total of 300+ raids (200+ legends) and still has no ex raid pass yet he did raids on the last 2 gyms mewtwo was on. and someone who did hes first raid on that gym with a low amount of gyms and probally not even silver badge got an ex raid pass , also 2 new ppl who had ex raid pass who barely do any raids got a 2nd ex raid pass for the next mewtwo 2 weeks later. (also in other towns i hear the same thing that hardcore raiders don’t get a pass anymore and only the ones who barely raid)
it seems that they did something wrong in the coding (like they always do) and still from 40-50 ppl with test raids to only like 10 per raid?