Some thinkings about Pokemon Go


Like other games of its class you begin Pokemon Go, and on your way to the end you have to solve some obstacles, but you eventually reach the end: level 40. After this you could try to do it again (faster), but really the game has ended.
The obstacles, in every game are different. In our game, there are objects you need for evolve some mon’s, or Raids you have to win, because some mon’s aren’t available without this.

But there are other meta’s, like 100% IV mon’s, or shiny Pokemon. They’re the only influence to reach them is the proper game. It’s not your ability, nor your position in the globe. It’s only the algorithm which says whether you reach the meta or not.

And here enters the responsibility of the enterprise. We’re talking about a game which moves billions of Dollars, so they can’t leave the players like sheeps in the green. They have to give all players an equal chance to reach these goals. Surely someone who pays real money can increase his chances, but the players who don’t do so have to have a chance to reach the same meta. Maybe with more ability or with investment of more time, but there have to exist the same posibility.

Let’s talk about statistic and posibilities… the last case was the regression analysis about ExRaid-Passes. It shows that non-frequent players (with only a bronze badge) have more chances to get a pass than more frequent players. Maybe today it still has little influence, but think about some time in the future. All players which go on with their typical playstyle will have reached in their area of influence gold-bagdes. So from there on, only starters will have a chance to get an ExRaid-Pass. Because, do more than only a few battles in this gym, and at the end you win your badge, and automatically you move back in the list of possible recipients.

Well, let’s resume. I’m not against Niantic or the game, but I would like to tell them that there are some type of responsibility when you start a game of this volume. It’s not enough to say “Oh, it’s a bug”. No, there’s more. Imagine you sell a car, then you have the responsibilty to have a store with parts to exchange, repair or what ever you want. The same responsibility exist in software. All your users have to have the same posibilitiy to use the software and to reach the same level of usability. Niantic has to give all of us the same posibility to reach a significant point of the meta, if not it would be better not to start the game.


Gold badges have a far higher chance for the pass
Think how many players have bronze yet how few have gold

Lets say you have:
100 people who raided
55 of them have bronze
30 have silver
15 have gold

Now, from these, 35 get invites:
10 of those with gold
10 of those with silver
15 of those with bronze

Sure, only about 28% of those who recieved have gold medal, and it might seem like they had bigger chance, but only 27% of those with bronze got the invite while 66% of those who have gold got the invite, so with gold you have a lot better chance


No, you don’t know how Regression-Analysis works. It takes in account the number of any group involved in the analysis. So it doesn’t matter how many gold-bagdes are inside, the only limit is that they have to be represented in an statistical amount. And in a database of 5500 participants you can be shure are enough gold-badges…


Gold badges are preffered, not guaranteed to get the invites however


With EX-raid triggering, alot of people go raid at gyms they usually dont raid at. So they have bronze, maybe silver medals there. It actually made sense most didnt have a gold badge.

"Surely someone who pays real money can increase his chances, but the players who don’t do so have to have a chance to reach the same meta"
Like i said in the general discussion: someone of our group has done 7 kyogre raids, caught 3, of wich 2 were 100%. Our top raider has done 70+ Kyogres and is still waiting for a good one.
someone who doesnt pay can get just as good a pokemon as someone who does. The only difference is that the paying player will level his pokemon faster, cause he will probably have more rare candy. A completely free user will be able to achieve the same, but it will take longer.