Shiny rate from raid related to the number of trainers in raid


#1

I heard that the more trainers battling in a raid, the higher chance one or more trainers could get shiny out of raid, meaning 20 trainers raid may have one or more trainers getting a shiny than a 5 trainers raid.

I don’t know if there is any research done about this. Any comments?


#2

If that was the case that would suggest there’s more at play than pure RNG which we are expected to swallow with everything in the game.


#3

It’s doubtful. While it’s statistically more likely a large group will have at least one Shiny due to the amount of individual rolls of the dice, that doesn’t dictate that it means Shinies happen more in large raid groups.


#4

I would have to agree with this, with the exception of raid hours/special 3 hour raid (Entei, Raikou, etc.) because it seems like the large group I go with to these events someone (or multiple people) end up getting a shiny compared to the smaller groups of 5-8 people.


#5

Larger groups have more who get at least one than smaller groups. And the larger group also will have more who get none than the smaller group.

The more tries you have, the more will be shiny. Also the more tries you have, the more will not be shiny.

If random number streams were perfectly smooth we would see this clearly. Their clumpiness makes it hard to see. Because we can isolate a small series within the stream that has more than average, and other series that have less.

The larger your group, the more likely it will be to manifest the average. The smaller your group, the more likely it will be a clump – but whether it’s a clump with more than average or a clump with fewer than average will be unpredictable. If you combine all the clumps together and they will average out.

If we had access to the code we might be able to see whether any of our actions can affect the results. Barring that, we’re left with guresses, assumptions, suspicions, and rumors. (In the final measure the surprise shiny is much more fun than the one that comes every time you expect it.)


#6

This kind of sucks for me we have a group of 4


#7

Of course the larger the group the more chances you have of getting a shiny, and the smaller the group the less chances you have.

And I would have to personally disagree to some degree about the surprise shiny, I wasn’t surprised when I got my shiny rayquaza because I knew I was bound to get a shiny from one of the raids I did that day.


#8

Almost. The larger the group the more chances the group will have of getting a shiny. Your own chance will remain the same whatever size of group you are in.

You knew you were bound to get a shiny? Exactly how? Or just a hunch? Still a surprise.


#9

Honestly more like a hunch and overconfidence because everyone in my group (20 people) ended up getting a shiny rayquaza so I was confident that I’d end up with one, cut it close though, got it in the second to last raid of the day.


#10

Of the 24 we did the other day my friends accounts never got a Shiny. She’s 0/29 now on Ray. She’s quite annoyed as Groudon was around 35 before she saw a Shiny too.


#11

statistictally legendary raids have a 1 in 20 chance of a shiny. So yes, the more players join, the bigger the chance that someone gets a shiny, or even more players get one.

I’ve done raidtrains in big groups where we had no shinies for 3-4 raids in a row, and have done single raids where we had 4. It’s all RNG and on average 1 in 20. That’s all you need to know.

If you’ve seen the youtubers in japan during raid hour last week you’ll see how RNG can screw people over. (hint: 180 raids done and just 2 shinies dropped), which raises the question if Niantic perhaps lowered the odds because rayquaza is available for over a month?


#12

Did a raid yesterday with 16, and 2 people got Shinies. One of them was my son.


#13

That means each raid you do, you have 1 in 20 chance. Imagine each time you raid you are rolling an un-biased 20-sided die, and one of the sides has been designated as “shiny”. The first time you raid your chance is 1 in 20. The next time you raid, your chance is 1 in 20. Every time you raid your chance is 1 in 20.

No matter how may times you roll the die, your next roll’s chance is 1 in 20.
No matter how many people roll the die, each roll the chance is 1 in 20.

The die has no memory, so the number of times you’ve rolled “no shiny” before does not affect the chance your next roll will be “shiny”.


#14

I’m currently 0/106 on Ray and beyond frustrated.


#15

That’s probability in statistics


#16

I raid with a group of 4 to 6 players and we get more shiny then when we join larger groups… Our small group has gotten 18 shiny so far… I must admit we do a lot of raids…


#17

Is that 106 on Rays return with possible Shiny or 106 Total Ray Raids.


#18

Since shiny release. And now it’s up to 114.