Random spawns: derived from regularly rotating pools?


#1

Today, I went out for a walk, and got rather exited when I spotted a Vulpix along the way. Nothing too special in the greater scheme perhaps, but, during the past year I spotted perhaps 5 Vulpix in the wild, so not counting raids or eggs. Ofcourse, I caught it immediately, even if it was just for the candy.

A few hundred meters further: another Vulpix. Well, lucky day in the Vulpix department I guess? During my walk, which took just about 1 hour, I spotted 4 Vulpixes total, and also saw one on my radar for a pokestop that wasn’t on my route.

Yes, it was a sunny day, but we’ve had more sunny days during the past year, so why did I spot a lot of Vulpix today? And, if the sun matters so much, why haven’t I seen any Growlithes? They’re roughly as rare as Vulpix around here.

But, something else was odd as well. Yesterday, I went for a pretty similar walk in the same area, and spotted dozens of Eevees. Today: not a single Eevee.

Which brings me to the topic: particular weather definitely boosts the spawn of pokemons with affinity for that weather, but rather than just randomly drawing from a large pool containing all applicable pokemon with that affinity, the pool is downsized to a selection. So, today I might have spotted several Vulpix, but, if we have similar weather tomorrow, and I make the same round, then it’s very possible that I won’t spot a single Vulpix, but run into half a dozen Arcanines instead. Or Magmars. Or Charmanders. However, I doubt I’ll run into both Charmanders and Vulpixes, or both Magmars and Arcanines. Simply because the “daily pool for sunny weather” (I just assume it’s daily, but it’s also possible that it updates every 6-8 hours, or only once a week) may contain a different “rare spawn of the day”.

And that would explain why some rare spawns seem even more rare then others to the avarage player, even if statistics show they should be comparable in rarity: it’s simply because they’ve been hunting for them on the wrong day (perhaps also in the wrong biome or S2 region, or however Niantic decides to distribute these things). If you really want a Charmander, and you spot a Vulpix, then I suspect it’s better to search another day, or drive some 20 miles, and try elsewhere, because Charmander might not be in the spawn pool for the area you’re in at the moment you’re there.

Oh, and someone from the raid group I’m in also posted an image of a Ninetails he caught in roughly the same area I was walking, just about 1km distant. Which I think is just too coincidental for a catch-the-vulpix-day.

The exact size of the “daily pool”, its contents and rotation times would be something for others to figure out, I’m too lazy for that. I’m just saying there is some very obvious structure in these “random” spawns.


#2

What was your weather? CLEAR boosts FIRE types.


#3

Clear and sunny. But, where were all the other applicable firetype pokemon?
-Charmander + evolutions
-Growlithe + evolution
-Ponyta + evolutions
-Magmar (and Magby)
-Cyndaquil <- I actually spotted 1 of those today
-Slugma + evolution
-Houndour + evolution (maybe tonight, going to walk in an hour)
-Torchik + evolutions
-Mightyena + evolution (maybe tonight, going to walk in an hour)
-Numel (I actually found one yesterday, at a recurring spawn, but funny enough, not today when the weather was right)

So, of all those possible spawns, some more common (of which I already have a dozen, so I’m not complaining about all the Vulpixes, I just find it very odd), only two appeared, one only once, the other as often as I encountered it during the past year. Statistically, this is either unprobable, or spawns work somewhat different than we’d assume at first glance. And I think spawns being taken from some sort of “temporary local pool”, which is a subset of the entire pool of applicable Pokemon, is fairly probable. But, that theory does raise the questions how big these “local pools” are, what area they span (my guts say level 10 S2 cells, possibly even as big as level 9) and how often they refresh or rotate.


#4

Yeah, it’s more intuition than real data, but I have similar sensation about what’s happening to me.
I’m allways looking out for what I need to complete my collection. And one day I find 5 Trapinch, and another day with the same weather in the same area not one. Today was my Cacnea-day… since the last new 23 list of gen 3 there was not one in my area or radar, today I catched 2…


#5

Well, tonight it was still clear weather, but no more Vulpix. Not any other fire-type pokemon either, despite it still being clear weather. However, I did run into several Gligar, which also aren’t native to my biome, but must’ve spawned from the weatherboost (ground type).
Really quick&dirty conclusion: the temporary local pool changes crudely around dawn and dusk.


#6

Interesting idea. After reading your first post i though maybe it would rotate during a nest migration, but based of the additional information it might indeed just rotate or pick randomly every 12 hours between the available pokemon in that weather types pool.


#7

For whatever it’s worth, I’ve seen the system behave very much like you described it, and had just assumed it was a rotating pool. It’s handy that where I walk I tend to see enough spawns of the pokemon of the day to push its candy above the evolve threshold in under an hour.


#8

I’ve seen way more Vulpix in the last month then I have the whole time playing the game.


#9

Didn’t notice any (for my region) uncommon pokemon today, so I just figure todays pool for Clear Weather took grass types, which happens to be the primary biome type around here. (most of the town is zoned as grass-land, probably thanks to most people actually having a garden and lots of grassland surrounding it)


#10

Mightyena + Evolution, you mean Poochyena + Evolution which is Mightyena.